Introduction
Human ingenuity and innovation have long distinguished us from other species, shaping our understanding of progress. While technology is often hailed as a hallmark of human achievement, its advancements have also brought significant challenges. For instance, the revolution in communication during the 1970s enabled direct contact between individuals but led to widespread job losses among telephone operators. [1].
The same happens in various industries and in many career fields such as Lift Operators, Pin Boys, or Warehouse workers [2]. So, over the years even though technology kept making us more productive, people also grew more pessimistic about it, or rather, if it could still be considered progress when millions suffer from it.
The discourse surrounding technology remains as pertinent today as it was since the inception of our earliest tools. Recent global concerns regarding AI development underscore its ongoing relevance [3]. Despite a lack of consensus in the literature, this article aims to synthesise diverse perspectives, shedding light on the implications of AI for the job market and addressing prevailing uncertainties.
It is important to note that no one can with total certainty predict the future of AI, least of all the AI engineers who are working with the technology. This blog will be divided into four sections. First, we'll review the definition of artificial intelligence and some of its implications for human development.
Next, we'll delve into arguments with an optimistic perspective surrounding AI development. Following that, we'll examine the primary arguments advocating for caution. Finally, we will conclude this article by attempting to synthesise different arguments.
What is Artificial Intelligence?
To keep this relatively simple without entering into the details and technical jargon. Artificial intelligence, as it could be implied from its name, refers to all the processes by which we try to replicate human intelligence in computers, in order to make them faster and solve more complex issues, without constant human intervention.
It achieves such by processing large amounts of data and information. The goal for AI is to be able to do things such as recognize patterns, make decisions, and judge like humans. Because of its broader scope, it isn’t easy to think of an industry that cannot benefit from AI development.
With the rise of generative AI, which allowed computers to generate inputs such as images, sound, numbers, etc… that are as close as if they were made in their traditional ways, it’s clear that AI technology has the potential to work to make human reach a new cap, the same way the internet did when it was introduced and adopted.
The potential applications, power, and disruptive capabilities of AI appear almost limitless. In the automobile industry AI and machine learning are introducing new ways to move around with self-driving cars [4].In the healthcare industry, it can help detect certain diseases earlier and faster, increasing people's chance of recovery [5].
In the camera industry, it allows us to increase our device's frame quality and even anticipate what the next frame will be [6]. Which means we could continue like this forever. Rather let’s address the positive arguments developed in favour of AI development.
An Optimistic view on AI Development:
AI should be viewed as a tool rather than a competitor:
Supporters of Artificial Intelligence development support the idea that AI should be viewed as a tool designed to make our lives easier. A tool by itself is useless, but when combined with human capabilities, it allows us to maximise our potential, and so will AI.
In an interview with Business Insider, Madgavkar, a partner at McKinsey, stated "We have to think about these things as productivity-enhancing tools, as opposed to complete replacements," [7]. AI has the potential to enhance various industries and job roles by automating tedious and time-consuming tasks, thus boosting overall productivity.
This allows individuals to concentrate on more significant and rewarding aspects of their work, leading to improved performance. For instance, in healthcare, as mentioned earlier [5], AI can analyse patient scans, compare them to a database, and detect diseases and anomalies earlier.
This doesn't render doctors obsolete but enables them to assist more patients and focus on treatment, thanks to the assistance provided by such tools.
The Ability to Adapt is what is going to be Crucial:
Ultimately Artificial intelligence won’t replace us, what is going to play a major role in job retention is our ability to adapt. Indeed, people who are going to utilise AI will have a major advantage over those who decide not to, giving them an advantage in the job market.
It is in this light that Trevor Back, chief product officer at Speechmatics, said during Thursday’s panel discussion at the AI Summit New York 2023, “If you don’t use AI, you are going to struggle since most roles will use some form of AI in the way that they act,” [8].
In the past, we've seen similar dynamics with the introduction of various technologies. When computers and the internet emerged, those who couldn't adapt, learn, and apply these innovations faced significant challenges.
Therefore, the fundamental question becomes: should we halt innovation to preserve outdated methods due to our inability to adapt?To this, History provides us a clear answer too: Over the centuries, those who failed to adapt and innovate have consistently been surpassed by those who discovered new, revolutionary ways of doing things.
AI will increase Productivity and Wealth:
An insightful approach to address a situation of concern is to, again, have a look at how a similar situation played out in the past and what were the outcomes.
Throughout history, after major technological breakthroughs such as the Industrial Revolution, the adoption of the Internet and computers, the invention of the printing press, and the standardisation of the aviation industry, there still remained a need for human labour [9].
In fact, these advancements often led to the creation of higher-paying jobs and increased wealth. From an economic perspective, it can be argued that these higher-paying jobs will increase consumption.
To meet this increased demand, suppliers may need to hire more workers, thereby creating employment opportunities. This additional increase in employment could further help offset any jobs lost along the way.
A Pessimistic view on AI Development
Concerning Numbers:
Many studies have been conducted to assess the impact of Artificial Intelligence on job loss and the labour market, and the findings are indeed concerning. For example, Forrester predicts that in the United States alone, 2.4 million jobs will be lost due to generative AI by 2030 [10].
Additionally, Goldman Sachs estimated that by April 2024, automation could replace 300 million full-time jobs [10]. McKinsey's research suggests that by 2030, approximately 30% of work hours have a high likelihood of being automated, potentially resulting in nearly 12 million Americans needing to switch jobs [10].
These figures paint a troubling picture of the future, indicating that without careful consideration, the development and implementation of AI could cause significant harm. This concern becomes more tangible when the conversation stops to be hypothetical.
Indeed, companies such as IBM and British telecommunications giant BT Group, both cited AI when announcing job cuts last year, with the implication that many of these jobs may not return, report Business Insider [7].
Ethical Questions:
The development of AI raises ethical concerns beyond just its impact on the job market. One such concern revolves around the question of competency: when someone accomplishes a task with the assistance of AI, how do we distinguish between those who use it as a tool and those who rely fully on it without any checks?
In the art world, generative AI like DALL-E 2 or MidJourney has been creating artwork, with an AI-generated piece even winning an art competition in 2022 [11]. This raises questions about who should receive credit and ownership for the art: the AI model itself? the creators of the prompt? the company behind the AI? or the individuals whose data trained the model?
In the education sector, criticism has emerged regarding the use of AI tools to complete assignments [12], as it may undermine critical thinking skills and problem-solving abilities. Over-reliance on such tools could also diminish students' creativity and compromise academic integrity.
What about Privacy?
As previously mentioned, Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning processes rely heavily on large amounts of data to recognize patterns and make predictions, and decisions. In certain sectors like finance, healthcare etc, highly accurate models may require access to personal information.
This includes identifiable details such as names, locations, gender, and race, as well as more sensitive data like biometrics, financial records, and health information. However, the use of such data raises significant concerns regarding privacy and data security [13]. Unregulated practices in data handling may lead to potential misuse or inadequate protection of this information.
For instance, some organisations have prohibited their employees from using ChatGPT due to concerns regarding OpenAI's policy, which states that any input data, including proprietary information, may be used to train the model [13].
Table Summary
An optimistic view | A pessimistic view |
Tool to boost our productivity | Job loss concerns |
It won’t replace us, the inability to adapt will | Ethical concerns |
Will generate wealth and employment | Privacy concerns |
A Synthesis
Throughout this article, we've explored the main arguments presented from both sides of the spectrum regarding AI development. We believe that each viewpoint holds significant value in shaping our approach to AI. AI holds immense potential for human society, akin to the pivotal role the internet played in our history.
It can enhance our capabilities, productivity, and overall well-being. Additionally, beyond the points highlighted in this article, AI has the potential to address some of the most pressing societal challenges we face. Such as climate change, world hunger, poverty, criminality, and so on…
Therefore, it's crucial to recognize this moment as an opportunity and turning point for our species to evolve and reach new heights. However, it's crucial to approach AI development with caution and ethics to ensure responsible use and mitigate potential harm.
While AI is poised to create wealth, and can represent a cornerstone in our society, it's essential to ensure that the benefits are inclusive and accessible to all, rather than exacerbating existing inequalities. Ultimately, the key is to harness the potential of AI in a manner that promotes the common good and advances societal progress.
Conducted by:
Ndong Obame Jeremie
Mentors:
Abdullah Hassan
Sources
[5] - Revolutionising healthcare: the role of artificial intelligence in clinical practice | BMC Medical Education | Full Text (biomedcentral.com)
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